Pollsters aren’t always accurate when it comes to elections, such as Gallup in 2012 when Mitt Romney ran against President Barack Obama. Gallup was wrong during the last three elections. And whatever you do, never listen to Karl Rove’s predictions. Most of us remember his election night meltdown which is a really good video to watch from time to time if you need to cheer yourself up.
PredictWise, a gambling trade project has a 91-percent accuracy rate so looking to them for a more accurate prediction would be a better route to take than Gallup – and those odds aren’t too shabby.
If you’re a betting person, don’t waste your money on any of the Republican candidates.
According to PredictWise and its analysis of betting odds, Democrats have a 62-percent chance of retaining the White House, as of December 19. The odds have been growing from just a couple of weeks ago, when it was only a 58-percent likelihood.
If you ask Odds Shark, the moneyline wager for a Democratic victory is -150 (bet $150 to win $100), while a Republican win is a longshot +120. The odds recently improved on this bookie site, too. Just a month ago, it was -140 for Democrats and +100 for the GOP.
For Conservatives who have their hearts set on a Donald Trump win, or those of us who are terrified of ever seeing a President Trump residing in the White House, the hotel magnate doesn’t have a chance of winning the GOP nomination, according to the odds. Trump’s odds are at 5/2, while bookies have Ted Cruz’s odds set at 11/4 odds. Ben Carson is a longshot at 66/1.
In case you don’t trust the odds, read this excerpt from the Huffington Post in 2012:
In presidential races beginning in 1896, the New York Times, Sun, and World provided daily betting quotes. The papers’ sources were bookies who had agents at every stump and whistle-stop to gather intel and quantify popular sentiment. Between 1884 and 1940, the bettors erred on just one of sixteen elections, Wilson’s 1916 upset of Hughes.
Odds Shark states that Gov. John Kasich remains ‘irrelevant” and concludes that Marco Rubio is the favorite to win the GOP nomination.
Martin O’Malley is at 150/1 – a YUGE longshot.
The online gaming sites’ have the declared the next President to be Hillary Clinton with the odds at 8/11 and Bernie Sanders’ chances at 25/1.
Carly Fiorina’s odds are ranked at 200/1 and tying for last place according to the odds are Lindsey Graham and George Pataki at 500/1.
Clinton holds an odds-on favorite spread of 8/11 for the general election with her predicted opponent Marco Rubio holds 9/2 odds.
The site names Democratic candidate Hilary Clinton as the favorite to win the Democratic Party’s nomination, then on to the White House where she will be America’s next President.
So what will it be – Madam President or Ms. President? Madam POTUS?
Unless the odds change drastically before election day.
As Groopspeak notes, gambling on elections is against the law in the United States, so don’t try to win a fortune by running online to find out how much of your savings you’re willing to risk.
The online sites are European, and mostly in the U.K., where wagers such as this are legal.
Image: Gage Skidmore via Flickr.